Don’t expect Donald Trump to follow through on all his campaign promises as quickly and thoroughly as he did for the insurgents who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2020. Roughly 1600 people faced prosecution for their attempt to shut down Congress, block certification of Joe Biden’s election, and keep Trump in office.

Some trespassed in Congressional offices.

Some broke windows and vandalized the building; at least one took a dump in Nancy Pelosi’s office.

Some attacked Capitol police with sticks or flagpoles or police shields or Tasers; some were armed.

Some plotted grander strategies for overthrowing the government.

Many of the accused pled guilty to more and less modest charges and served time in jail, but the leaders of the Proud Boys (Enrique Tarrio) and the Oath Keepers (Stewart Rhodes) were convicted of seditious conspiracy and sentenced to roughly two decades in jail.

During the presidential campaign, Trump promised to treat the accused and convicted justly. His Congressional allies explained that would mean considering each case individually, and most assuredly not releasing people convicting of attacking police officers. But those allies misunderstood just why Trump was issuing pardons and commutations: it wasn’t about the details of what the convicted had done; it was because they had uncritically supported Trump and his claims, and demonstrated the willingness to suffer–and inflict suffering to advance the cause.

A bunch of insurgents were released. In addition to vindicating his allies, Trump sent a signal to other supporters–and to his opponents.

There’s certainly nothing new about protesters breaking the law to make a point. Civil rights and antiwar activists like John Lewis or Randy Kehler went to prison to demonstrate their sincerity and commitment; resolutely non-violent, they were prepared to suffer for their cause. (Gandhi’s explanation of this approach was to suffer and try to be convinced of your opponent’s position.)

Authorities punish lawbreakers for a few reasons: they uphold social norms; they take bad actors off the streets; they educate and rehabilitate wrong-doers; they deter others from taking similar actions.

In taking a blanket approach, not sorting among the various insurgents and their actions, Trump put at least a few very bad actors back on the streets. Some announced their plans, thanking Trump, calling for retribution to those who put them in jail, and pledging loyalty. The so-called QAnon shaman announced he was going to get guns. At least one protester was arrested again for violating gun laws.

Surely, some of the J6 insurgents reconsidered their actions and decided to abide by the law. Others, clearly, are undaunted, newly supported and committed to some kind of Trump agenda. This is scary.

Some of the released are out to demonstrate that they are dangerous; have no doubt that they will do so, possibly at the expense of people who had testified against them or crossed Trump in some way.

Trump’s blanket release/forgiveness signaled that the most important thing in making decisions was fealty to Trump. Most of the released got the message.

So, what happens next? Will Rhodes’s Oath Keepers, invisible since J6 revive? Will Tarrio’s Proud Boys, whose locals had been attacking gay people and Drag Queen story times accelerate their efforts? Why not? The big message is that Trump will protect his most committed and violent acolytes–even against the police. Message received.

More than that, Trump’s pardon humiliated Republican allies who had–until just now–explained that the J6 protesters who attacked the police deserved no sympathy, unlike someone who might have attended a rally and inadvertently gotten caught up in the moment. Now they have to pretend that they don’t know the details or just return fire by attacking Joe Biden’s poorly considered, but understandable, preemptive pardons for friends and relatives who might have angered Trump.

Trump made it clear that those Congressional allies were guided by no principle beyond loyalty to Trump. And if they go along with the pardons, they’ll go along with anything.

For now.