Will the Women’s March matter?

Event DetailsIncreasingly, the women’s march looks to sound the trumpet for a new surge in oppositional politics during the Trump era–however long it lasts.

Counter-inaugural protests are nothing new, but this effort is getting more and better attention than any others in memory. More than that, the prime target, Trump, is coming into office with a slighter reservoir of support than any president in at least a century.

Is the march going to change anything?

Not by itself, but as part of a much bigger process of organizing and staking out positions……..maybe.

Organizing the march started with a couple of stray social media posts on election night calling for an anti-Trump demonstration (See Julia Felsenthal’s Vogue article on the development). The organizers worked hard to avoid restating a familiar, but limited, white middle-class feminist take, bringing diverse organizers and organizations into the fold in early stages of planning. Early reports emphasized diversity and inclusion, but avoided a clear set of demands or issues. The familiar risk here was to use the extraordinarily diverse opposition Trump has provoked to put together a broad coalition that offered little more than general distaste.

There’s a trade-off between the breadth of an event coalition and its clarity and vigor. The foggier the issues, the more people and groups who might turn up….once. Tighter and clearer politics make for better sustained engagement, but expanding is tougher.  Organizers for any cause have to negotiate a tricky balance, walking a tightrope over the perils of vacuousness on one side and marginalization on the other.

But a platform appeared a few days ago, and although it’s extensive, it’s certainly not a tepid reach toward a mushy consensus. The guiding vision, that women’s rights are human rights and human rights are central, emphasizes not just equal opportunities, but protections of reproductive rights, sexual minorities, civil rights, labor, and the environment.  The list of participating organizations is very long, anchored by Planned Parenthood and the Natural Resources Defense Council, but it’s not unlimited. The spat about deleting New Wave Feminists, self-described as “badass prolife feminists.” demonstrated a willingness to take tough stances and risk enemies that is essential for building an effective campaign.

Although the first reports on Saturday are sure to focus on the size and tenor of the event (how many people? how disruptive?), more important are the organizatpussyhatprojectcover.jpgions and commitments that come out of it.

Evaluations of an event like this virtually always overemphasize the event itself, and look for instant responses that are rarely in evidence. A president Trump is unlikely to change his policies or tone in response, and elected officials who already support him are unlikely to defect dramatically.

But a successful campaign works over time. The women’s march will effect influence if:

Activists, analysts, reporters, and politicians feel compelled to pay attention to the issues the demonstrators raise;

people who attend get a sense of political possibilities and their own potential power;

activists return to their communities, sporting tee shirts and pussyhats, proudly claim their participation and work to find ways to continue their efforts at home;

protesters connect with people and issues they didn’t previously know, and forge new alliances;

organizations build contact lists and active memberships–as well as alliances;

allies in government are encouraged to take a tougher opposition line;

opponents in government find excuses to distance themselves from the new administration and its policies–and political advantage in doing so;

supportive spectators get a sense that they’re not alone.

If the women’s march makes for a spectacular display without follow-up or ongoing engagement, it won’t count for much. But if it’s the effective call to action that organizers envision, all kinds of things become possible.

It’s not the moment, but the momentum that matters.

 

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Tangling with an icon: John Lewis and Donald Trump

At first glance, it seemed that Donald Trump had been foolish in going after Representative John Lewis, an authentic American hero. Through intense commitment, moral clarity, and physical courage, young John Lewis earned a place in American history long before he ran for Congress. By the time he’d turned 25, Lewis had scratched out what he surely knows is the first paragraph in his eventual obituary: beaten while praying on the Edmund Pettus Bridge.

Since then, John Lewis has continued to work for his vision of a just society, and over time has tried to transport his iconic status in the civil rights movement to other issues, including economic justice, opposition to war, protecting the environment, gun control, and standing up for gay rights. It’s a liberal Democratic agenda, promoted with speeches on the floor of Congress–and elsewhere, legislative efforts, and sometimes civil disobedience. Lewis has even published a graphic novel trilogy, offering his experience as inspiration for civic engagement to young people. He IS a comic book hero!

Lewis announced that he would be skipping Donald Trump’s inauguration because he didn’t consider the president-elect to be legitimate. Reflexively, Trump tweeted back with venom. It’s a familiar pattern, just like questioning the heroism displayed by Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) as a prisoner during the Vietnam War. The easier move, obviously, is to acknowledge heroism, sincerity, and commitment–and then discuss substantive political differences…politely. Republican members of the Senate Judiciary committee did exactly that when Representative Lewis testified against the confirmation of Attorney General designate Jeff Sessions (R- Alabama).

Trump’s Twitter attacks on Rep. Lewis immediately occasioned outrage, and the Internet filled with rather obvious comparisons of the two men’s historic political commitments. While Lewis was being beaten in Selma, Trump was cloistered in an expensive private military school. You can pick any year since then and find similarly stark differences in life choices: both Trump and Lewis have been consistent in living their values.

President-elect Trump’s attacks on an American hero didn’t tarnish Lewis’s reputation in the slightest. In Georgia’s 5th district, which Trump accused Lewis of neglecting for the past thirty years, residents were quick to announce their support. Note: Lewis was reelected with 84.6 percent of the vote in 2016

Democrats in Congress rallied to announce their friendship and support; a few agreed to skip the inauguration. And even Republicans who criticized his stance on the inaugural mostly began by announcing their respect for his record. Trump’s tweets didn’t undermine Lewis’s support with anyone who already supported John Lewis.

But it’s not clear that many of Trump’s supporters will desert him for criticizing a liberal Black congressman. They’ve had to grow accustomed to Trump’s hyperbolic invective (recall, Meryl Streep is overrated….). This won’t be the last straw for those who found a way to stick with Trump through so much already; they’ve learned to swallow and forgive.

As to John Lewis? The fact that he’s continued his efforts, maintaining his commitments over fifty years since Selma, makes him a difficult hero for many Americans. While opponents of liberal social and economic policies can speculate on what Martin Luther King might have said in this different time, John Lewis in Congress offers them no such latitude. Those who claim they would have supported the civil rights movement in 1965–most Americans didn’t–might clutch for a moment when they realize they have the opportunity to do so today.

 

 

 

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Martin Luther King Day, 2017

(This is a repost of the MLKing Day holiday note.)

Martin Luther King died young enough and dramatically enough to be turned into an American hero, but it was neither his youth nor his death that made him heroic.

In his rather brief public life, beginning in Montgomery at 26, and ending with his assassination at 39, King consistently displayed rhetorical brilliance (on the podium and the page), strategic acumen, and moral and physical courage.

The effort to honor Martin Luther King with a holiday commemorating his birthday started at the King Center, in Atlanta, in the year after his assassination.  States began to follow suit, and by 1983, more than half celebrated King’s life with a day.  In that year, Ronald Reagan signed a bill making Martin Luther King day a national holiday expressing ambivalence, acknowledging that it was costly, and that King may have been a Communist.

The King holiday was about Martin Luther King, to be sure, but it was meant to represent far more than the man.  King stands in for the civil rights movement and for African-American history more generally.  I often wonder if the eloquence of the 1963 “I have a dream” speech winds up obscuring not only a man with broader goals, but a much more contested–and ambitious–movement.

The man and the movement are ossified into an iconic image, like a statue, which locks King and the movement into the politics of 1963-1965.  We accept King’s dream, that little children will play together, and that people will be judged by “the content of their character” (a favorite phrase on the right).

The image, like a statue, is available for appropriation to advocates of all political stripes, and the establishment of the holiday itself represents an achievement of the civil rights movement, winning the holiday if not broader economic and social equality.

Before the transformation of the man into an icon, King transformed himself from a pastor into an activist, a peripatetic crusader for justice.

But the pastor didn’t disappear; rather this role grew into something larger, as King himself transformed himself from a minister into a an Old Testament prophet, one whose primary concern was always the people on the margins, the widows and orphans, the poor and hungry.  In standing with those on the margins, King courageously used–and risked–the advantages of his privilege, pedigree, and education.  He also knew that he risked his safety and his life.

In his writing, King used his education and his vocation to support his political goals.  In the critically important “Letter from a Birmingham Jail,” he cited both the Constitution and the Bible in support of Federal intervention in local politics to support desegregation and human rights.  (We know that other activists now use the same sources to justify pushing the Federal government out of local politics.)

King explained that he was in jail in Birmingham, Alabama, because he had nonviolently defied local authorities in the service of higher laws, the Constitution and the Gospel.  This was not like making a provocative statement on one’s own [profitable] radio or television show.  There were real costs and severe risks.

King was never less than controversial during his life, under FBI surveillance during his political career, and vigorously criticized by opponents (for demanding too much and too strongly) and allies (for not demanding more, more vigorously).

When he was assassinated outside a Memphis motel in 1968, he was standing with sanitation workers on strike, straying from a simpler civil rights agenda.  He had also alienated some civil rights supporters by coming out, strongly, against the war in Vietnam.  And Black Power activists saw their own efforts as overtaking King’s politics and rhetoric.  By the time he was killed, Martin Luther King’s popular support had been waning for some time.

Posterity has rescued an image of Martin Luther King, at the expense of the man’s own broader political vision.

Ironically, in elevating an insurgent to a position in America’s pantheon of historic heroes, we risk editing out the insurgency.

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The protest(s) sessions and what comes next

Unlike most of his would-be Cabinet mates, Attorney General-designate Jeff Sessions has filed his ethics and financial disclosure forms. When Senate committee hearings began this morning, his opponents were ready.

Lisa Desjardins, from PBS Newshour, posted the welcome Senator Sessions received from the gallery.

You’ll note that the faux Klansman was removed pretty quickly, but the maroon Statue of Liberty, surely no fan of the senator, was allowed to stay–at least for a while. Sessions’s opponents–and there are plenty of them–waited until the hearing resumed, then popped up, one or two at a time, to lodge their charges from the gallery until they were removed. This “popcorn” protest can go on for a long time, interrupted, delaying, and inflecting the hearings.

Senator Sessions was pressed by both the protesters and tough questions from Democrats on the committee, who had themselves been pressured by email and calls from activists demanding a strong stance against the appointment.  Sessions felt compelled to announce his support for civil rights, voting rights, Supreme Court precedent, and the rule of law generally. He certainly knew this was coming, and prepared for it. Indeed, the NAACP staged a sit-in at one of his home offices a week ago (below).

Congressional hearings, confirmation hearings in particular, present a relatively compact stage for activists to advance their claims. The presence of opponents, elected officials, and media–against the backdrop of the Capitol, make for good drama and viral video.

The turbulence probably won’t stop Senator Sessions’s confirmation as Attorney General. Republicans enjoy a majority in the Senate, and he is apparently well-liked by his colleagues. There are no public reports of personal corruption or impropriety–charges of racism set aside. But the potential impact of a protest like this one–and there are likely to be many like this confronting most, if not all, of Trump’s appointees–plays out over a much longer time than the drama of a hearing, or even the days-long deliberations in the larger Senate.

Taunts and tough questions elicit qualifiers and assurances that might actually affect the way Attorney General General Sessions does his job; more likely, they’ll provide a recent and accessible record of almost promises that opponents can haul out when the Justice Department does anything like what the protesters fear. Most likely, they’ll elicit clear statements about the nominee’s views on immigration, reproductive rights, and access to voting that organizers can use to mobilize more opposition.

The point: although it’s easy and natural to focus on the drama of the moment, demonstrations like this only really matter in the context of much longer and varied campaigns; but, they really can matter.

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Twitter’s stormtroopers

It took me a long time to understand why Donald Trump’s nasty tweets about people he didn’t like mattered at all. Protecting free speech means that people, including candidates for office, are allowed to say stupid hateful things. I didn’t realize that Trump’s persistent Cover artthreats to unleash his “beautiful” Twitter account was something that could be feared.

But, it doesn’t take many of Trump’s millions of Twitter followers to unleash a hell on the momentary targets of his wrath. Megyn Kelly, of Fox News, now reports that her questions about Trump’s attitudes and conduct toward women won her a series of juvenile insults from the bloated bully. But it wasn’t just name-calling: Trump supporters alerted to their candidate’s irritation with her joined in to torment the television personality. Some of the harassment involved nastier comments and threats of violence on Twitter, but it didn’t end there.  Kelly says that she was stalked, and strange men occasionally turned up at her home; her children were terrified. In a recent interview promoting her book, she says:

It was my year of guards and guns — you know, thanks to Trump. I was under security threat for most of the nine months he was really coming after me. I had strange people showing up at my house. I had strange people casing my house. I had my children looking out the windows afraid. … Every time he would come after me, he would release — as I describe in the book — a torrent of nastiness in my life, and I had to sort of just be steady at the helm, because I was going to cover this race come hell or high water.

Kelly says that colleagues at Fox News tried to intervene with Trump, but the mogul demanded an apology from her. Although Kelly adamantly denies apologizing, she explains that she trekked to Trump Tower to discuss the issue; satisfied by this act of contrition, Trump stopped tweeting about her–for now.

Of course, this is awful, but we might think that people working in the public eye, like journalists, union leaders, or candidates for office, knowingly take on some risk.

That should not be the case for citizens who engage in political campaigns. In October 2015, when only the extraordinarily prescient or gullible thought Trump might be elected president, Lauren Batchelder, then an 18 year-old college student, asked him tough questions about women at a campaign event in New Hampshire. After the event, Trump tweeted an attack, and his followers quickly posted her name and address. For the past year, Batchelder’s social media accounts filled not only with criticism, but with explicit threats of violence. Again, it doesn’t take many crazy people to make someone’s life awful, and maybe to warn others off asking hard questions, or even going public in opposition.

Trump’s threats to unleash Twitter on his enemies suggest that he has some idea of what a sociopathic sliver of his followers are willing to do–and that he’s ready to intimidate would-be critics.

The violence, real and threatened, is an important dimension of fascist movements. I’d thought that the comparisons between the Trump campaign and noted fascists of the past, especially Hitler, were overblown and alarmist. I still do—but:

In the earliest days of the Nazi Party in the early 1920s, brown-shirted storm-troopers (SA) guarded party rallies–and violently disrupted the public meetings of rival parties, and fought in the streets with political opponents. Recruiting unemployed men, often veterans of World War I, the Party maintained control over its paramilitary forces, dispensing military titles and establishing a disciplined hierarchy. The SA gave frustrated and hungry young men discipline, a sense of belonging, and something to do that helped the Nazi Party. After coming to power, however, Hitler sought to consolidate the control of street violence within the state, obviate populist demands for somewhat socialist policies, and gain the support of the army and industrialists. In 1934, on the Night of the Long Knives, he had the leadership of the SA, including long time allies, arrested and executed.

The thugs motivated by hostile tweets differ from the SA in so many obvious ways: organization, coordination, and size (at its height, the SA numbered more than 3 million men) just to start, but the threat of violence can intimidate opposition and still political debate. This can’t be acceptable.

To date, there’s no hint that Trump, now elected president, has any intention of tempering his twitter threats, nor even picking his targets more selectively. But it’s hardly crazy to worry that a wayward tweet might lead to a violent outcome. Knowing the risks means taking responsibility.

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Rosa Parks resistance, anniversary.

Today’s entry reposts on the anniversary of Rosa Parks’s refusal to move to the back of a Montgomery bus.

 

Fifty-seven (now, 61) years ago today, Rosa Parks refused to move to the back of a segregated bus in Montgomery, Alabama.  When local activists learned about her arrest, they organized a city-wide boycott and filed a lawsuit, kicking an emerging civil rights movement into a higher gear.

Mrs. Parks’s non-cooperation was courageous, but it wasn’t an isolated act.  She had been an activist for most of her life, and was chapter secretary of the local NAACP.  She had taken a summer course at the Highlander Institute, where she read about civil disobedience, the Constitution, and the Brown versus Board of Education decision.

She also wasn’t the first person to defy segregation laws on the city buses; earlier that year, Claudette Colvin (at right), then fifteen, was arrested for the same offense, but local activists were reluctant to organize around her.  She was young, less experienced, pregnant, and not married.  Image matters.

The Montgomery bus boycott spurred similar efforts around the United States and brought global attention to the civil rights movement.  It also introduced Martin Luther King, then a young minister, to national visibility.

Mrs. Parks herself became an icon of the movement–and indeed, in American history.  When I ask my students to list heroes of the American civil rights movement, she is second only to Martin Luther King in mentions.  Often, students know no other names from the movement.

Twenty-five years after her arrest, Mrs. Parks’s celebrity brought her an appearance on a game show, To Tell the Truth.  In the video below, you can watch celebrities question her–and two impostors–about the bus boycott.  It’s bizarre and compelling.  The last questioner is comedian Nipsey Russell, who uses his brief turn to shout out to other important, courageous, and now lesser-known heroes of the movement.

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Flag battles at Hampshire College: the politics of diversion

Do you want to talk about the American flag? Hampshire College, in Western Massachusetts has (temporarily) removed the flag from its central flagpole to foster a dialogue about symbols. Upset about Donald Trump’s election, the next day students lowered the flag to half-mast, intended to be a peaceful protest about “the toxic tone of the monthslong election.”

This didn’t calm everyone–or maybe anyone; the following night, a group of students took down the American flag  and burned it. Hampshire replaced the flag for Veterans Day few nights later.

Students protested, explaining that they saw the flag as a symbol of inequality. In response to, uh, heated discussions, President Jonathan Lash ordered that, for a while, no flags would be flown from the main flagpole at the center of campus. In an email, he explained, “This decision to temporarily not fly the flag was intended to provide space to continue the campus-wide dialogue. The flag had become a heated symbol that was making conversations on campus this month impossible.”

As a sometimes proud alumnus of Hampshire College, I received his e-missive. I am most certainly not proud that President Lash thought the presence of an American flag in the driveway made honest and rational conversation impossible.

On Sunday, November 27, a group of veterans and their families brought their own flags to Hampshire College to protest in support of the flag. The New York Times cited protest organizers’ estimate of the crowd at about 400–as did local media; Fox News estimated about 1,000 veterans visiting campus. (I wasn’t there.)

Donald Trump saw the Fox report, and responded via Twitter that flag burning shouldn’t be permitted, and should certainly be punished, perhaps by jail or loss of citizenship. Trump’s tweet created a predictable round of responses, including discussions of Constitutional law, and another round of flag-burning outside Trump International Hotel by a fringe left group.

We can expect another round of outrage and reaction about the flag, the Constitution, symbols, patriotism, privilege, and Trump. None of it is likely to lead to anything resembling either civil or productive politics.

I’d like to unpack at least some of the massive amount of idiocy that we witness unfurling from a flagpole in Western Massachusetts–in the absence of a flag.

The flag burning at Hampshire was certainly legal, Constitutionally-protected, silly, and stupid.

First, some easy stuff: Burning an American flag doesn’t violate the laws of Massachusetts or the United States, and is a Constitutionally protected expression of free speech. I know this from a 1989 Supreme Court Decision, Texas v. Johnson, which found that Gregory Johnson’s burning of an American flag in a protest outside the 1984 Republican National Convention was “expressive conduct” protected by the First Amendment. The late Justice Antonin Scalia joined the majority decision, later explaining that the plain language of the Constitution was clear. President-elect Trump has previously cited Justice Scalia as a model for his own appointments to the Court.

As Justice Scalia would surely agree, many activities that the Constitution protects are unpleasant and unwise.

Second, it’s not surprising that students at Hampshire, like so many other students across the United States, were upset and disappointed by Trump’s victory in the electoral college. Most voters really did oppose him, and his campaign offered much to terrify supporters of, for example, immigrants, ethnic minorities, reproductive rights, public education, and the Constitution. (Obviously, this list could be so much longer.)

But Donald Trump doesn’t own the burned flag in South Amherst, nor the symbol for the entire United States. Hillary Clinton would have been inaugurated in front of the same flag; for that matter, Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, or Evan McMullin would have waved the stars and stripes as well. Trump’s victory hardly reflects well on the country, but the flag stands for a big diverse community filled with conflict and contradictions. It’s foolish to let it become a symbol for Donald Trump. There’s no reason for activists on the left to cede the symbol to their political opponents (see Abbie Hoffman, at right). Civil rights activists, for example, refused to allow the Ku Klux Klan to claim a monopoly on the flag.

As a political tactic, the battle over the flag is completely counterproductive to the interests of those who started it. Protest is most effective when it promotes discussion and activism on the issues animating it. A tactic that overshadows the cause becomes a burden for activists and a bludgeon for their opponents. Protest polarizes, and savvy activists try to gain political advantage by picking issues, tactics, and rhetoric that draws larger numbers to their side.

And large numbers, certainly majorities, would join students opposing, for example, privatizing Medicare, cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans, promoting racism, restricting access to abortion, or student debt–again, just a few examples.

But the story from the Pioneer Valley is all about the flag, privileged students, and angry veterans. At best, this is a distraction from real politics; at worst, it offers as substitute a new conflict on which many Americans are more likely to agree with Trump than the Supreme Court–much less the students.

 

By the way:

Fights about the flag are hardly new or unusual, and have appeared in Politics Outdoors. For example:

A few students at the University of California, Irvine, pushed a resolution to ban all flags from a specific lobby, provoking a visit by a small group of flag-loving Orange County residents.

 

San Francisco 49er quarterback Colin Kaepernick worked to direct national attention to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, middle,police violence by kneeling during the national anthem before games.

SALESOUT NARCH EUO MNDTY

 

 

Following activist Bree Newsome’s lead, South Carolina Governor (future ambassador to the UN?) Nikki Haley worked to remove the Confederate Battle flag from the state capitol.

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Spartacus moments (solidarity)

The signal moment in Stanley Kubrick’s (1960) Spartacus takes place on a hillside after the Roman legions finally defeat a slave rebellion led by Kirk Douglas. The victorious Roman general announces that the suI'm-Spartacus-film1rviving rebels will all be welcomed back as slaves, except for Spartacus, who will be crucified. Across the hillside, one sees the opportunity for heroic action, stands, declaring, “I am Spartacus.” One after another, each slave stands in solidarity, yelling out, “I am Spartacus.” Even Spartacus joins in.

The crosses come out the next day, as the Romans crucify thousands of men along the sides of the Appian Way.

It’s a powerful film with a clear political agenda. I can’t tell you much about the actual slave rebellion 2,000 plus years ago, but the idea of valorizing solidarity under pressure came from blacklisted author Howard Fast’s novel, as dramatized by blacklisted screenwriter, Dalton Trumbo. The writers’ names appear in the movie’s credits, breaking Hollywood’s blacklist. The notion is that solidarity means taking risks that could be avoided; standing with those under fire is a way to combat oppression and discrimination. It’s always easier not to.

The challenges of the Trump presidency will include opportunities for solidarity, and some are already standing up. In response to trial balloons for a national Muslim registry, Jonathan Greenblatt, leader of the Anti-Defamation League, announced his attention to sign up:

The day they create a registry for Muslims is the day that I register as a Muslim because of my Jewish faith, because of my commitment to our core American values, because I want this country to be as great as it always has been. As a Jewish community, we know what happens with litmus tests. We can remember. We have painful memories of when we ourselves were identified, registered and tagged.

The threat of large numbers of people volunteering to swamp such a registry–along with some obvious Constitutional problems–may be enough to scuttle the idea, or minimally, to design a more limited program that will be harder to disrupt.

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Columbia University

Even more pressing are Trump’s promises to rescind President Obama’s DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) program, which offered a relatively safe status to young people who came to the United States as children, and commence largescale deportations. Large city governments, like Los Angeles and Chicago, local police forces, and many universities have announced that they won’t cooperate with a deportation force. The idea is that deportations are antithetical to the other elements of doing their jobs: local police want residents to cooperate with them in solving crime; universities want to foster diverse communities involved in learning.

Across the country, university presidents have issued statements affirming their commitments to safety and diversity. For example, see the letter from City College of New York’s interim president, Vincent Boudreau:

Our values demand, whatever the rhetoric outside our campus, that we embrace the possibility that there is a place for all of us, on this campus and in this society: wherever you were born, and however you came here. They demand that we embrace our differences as virtues rather than threats, and recognize and nurture the promise represented by each person moving across this earth. At the most fundamental level, they demand that we commit our private and public selves to the responsibility of taking care of one another: of recognizing pain, and want, and isolation when we see it in those around us, and offering such comfort as we can.

We are a campus of immigrants, and the advocacy for justice in the field of immigration will continue to be central to our educational efforts. We are a campus community that proclaims its diversity, and so we must be a refuge and a source of wisdom on questions of racial, religious and gender fairness. We are, as an institution, built on foundational beliefs about the necessary place of accessible education—and by implication the need for robust social and economic mobility—in any stable and democratic society. And all of this means that whenever and for whatever reason the climate shifts against these values outside our campus, we are obliged to reaffirm them within it.

The leaders of 90 schools, so far, have signed a statement calling for retaining and expanding DACA. Many schools have announced that they won’t help deport students, and some have declared themselves to be sanctuaries. Meanwhile, faculty, students, and alumni have started petition campaigns asking their campuses to join in. Students have held demonstrations and walked out of classes to underscore their demands.

The statements and the campaigns are all about getting people to take sides in the upcoming conflict, and find solidarity with those more vulnerable.

The rebels on the hillside in Kubrick’s movie made a strong moral statement and deprived the Romans of property. Beyond that, however, the rebellion didn’t turn out so well for them. Sanctuary entails risk, even if crucifixion isn’t on the table. The point, however, remains powerful and clear–to stand against efforts to isolate and punish a vulnerable group of people.

For those who pay attention, there are likely to be far too many opportunities to demonstrate solidarity in the future.

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What these protests do…

Young people, particularly in places that didn’t support Donald Trump, continue to protest his election. (Below, you can see high school students in San Francisco marching.)

Two months before his inauguration, it’s worthwhile to think about just what these demonstrations can do.

To start, it’s extremely unlikely that the sincerity and vigor of the demonstrations will convince Donald Trump to resign in advance, nor motivate thirty plus Republican party stalwarts elected to the electoral college to vote for Trump to defect from their commitments.

This doesn’t mean demonstrating doesn’t matter.

Demonstrators demonstrate their convictions that Trump is unfit, by virtue of program or character, for the White House. Their concerns, about racism, misogyny, or the environment, to note just a few, draw public attention to Trump’s promises and his proposed appointments. They may provide a thumb on the scale for or against particular candidates for office and specific promises. The protests may also encourage Republicans in Congress to counsel the president-elect, or even to oppose some appointments or programs.

The protests set a policy agenda for news media, and pose questions that will be relayed not only to the new administration, but also to its supporters, inside and outside government. This week we see questions posed to the Trump campaign about just how racist, sexist, and anti-Semitic new senior strategist, Steve Bannon, really is. That’s not the conversation the administration wants to have. Trump can still decide that Bannon’s counsel is worth the hassle, but as long as the demonstrations continue, that cost will remain.

The demonstrations also matter for continued opposition to Trump’s presidency. People who turn out to protest see others who agree with them, and some of the other 61 million plus people who voted against Trump, watching the action online, see that they are not alone. People who take an action, carrying a placard, making a call, or even wearing a safety pin, identify themselves as activists, and are more likely to take another step. They’re also more likely to be asked to do something. Already, contributions to groups at the core of the new Trump opposition, like Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) have seen spikes in their fundraising. Like fundraisers, good organizers make lists and know to go back to people who have already demonstrated their willingness to respond.

Demonstrators in action meet people who agree on Donald Trump, but have different priorities: abortion rights, civil liberties, immigration, environmental protection, police violence, for example. Making contacts and learning issues is how political coalitions are built in the streets.

Demonstrators also pressure local authorities to declare their own politics through action. Here in California, leaders of the state legislature, local police departments, and university administrators have declared their opposition to mass deportations.  Signals of support aren’t enough, but they matter. Resisters can’t stop Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials from doing their jobs, but they can refuse to cooperate with them, passively, or openly by declaring zones of sanctuary. They can make deportation marginally more difficult.

And such sanctuary declarations expand the new administration’s list of opponents. Trump and some of his Congressional supporters have already announced their intent to cut federal funds for sanctuary cities and campuses. I doubt that majorities of Republicans will be willing to cross that line by explicitly defunding their cities and universities.

Taking a stance polarizes and engages a larger crowd, some of whom might then be enlisted in the great political battle. Right now, we’ve seen relatively small protests in mostly supportive settings, focusing on Trump himself and his campaign promises. The activists’ challenge will be to continue and focus their efforts as concrete policy proposals emerge from the new president and the Republican Congress. The first demonstrations that we’ve seen are just the start of what can be a much larger and more powerful politics.

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Apocalypse not yet

Demonstrations against president-elect Donald Trump continue in cities and on college campuses. (The image at right is from an anti-Trump walkout at Rutgers University.) Small groups continue to torment people who look like they belong to groups (blacks, Latinos, gays, Jews) that lost when Trump won, and now a few Trump supporters report  harassment when they come out by wearing Trump garb. Many people are trying to figure out how to respond to both Trump and what they fear he will do in office–specifically, what he promised.

It’s not just in the streets. Democrats in Congress are arguing about how to pick and fight their legislative battles, and university administrators are issuing statements not only about the virtues of diversity, but even promises to protect students liable for deportation–which may include hundreds of thousands of people.

It’s not clear what these first eruptions of activism are going to lead to, nor how effective they will be. What Trump does in office is going to matter a lot, and right now most of his opponents and allies are guessing. Trump has demonstrated no reliable commitment to any set of ideas beyond his own Trumpiness, and is already backing off some of his commitments–and commitments that supporters imagined. He’s also demonstrated little capacity or interest in managing anything beyond his media coverage, and may therefore be reluctant to undertake all of the unpopular policies he’s embraced.

Americans are worried that he’s not competent; some large share of his supporters said he’s not up to the job.  But incompetence is hardly reassuring; those who are going out into the streets are more worried that he actually can follow through on his promises.

Anti-Trump demonstrators over the weekendAmerican political institutions are designed to prevent the sorts of things he’s promised from coming about. Thus far, the tripwires have failed: The Republican Party nominated a candidate without experience in public service nor demonstrated commitment to the party; mass media struggled to cover his background, and he refused to conform to norms that we thought were well-established about transparency or honesty; and the electoral college, designed as a check against such bold ambitions, actually delivered the election to him.

The next lines of defense are in the checks and balances of political institutions in Congress. With both Houses of Congress now controlled by the Republican Party, the question is how disciplined Republicans will be in acceding or challenging Trump.

Some historical context is helpful here. Donald Trump and the Republican Party performed substantially worse than Barack Obama and the Democrats did in 2008.  Compare the results in Congress:

House of Rep.                      Senate

D             R             Dgain     D             R             Dgain

2008                       257         178         (21)        60           40           (9)

2016                       193         238         (6)          51           48           (2)

President Obama, who actually won the popular vote, won a larger majority in the House and, for a brief time, a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Even then, his agenda narrowed as he sought to maintain the support of Democrats who held seats in more conservative states or districts (RIP, the public option, for example).

Within weeks of taking the office of office, Obama faced the newly emergent Tea Party, which opposed health care reform–among other things–emboldened Republicans, and scared more than a few Democrats.

If Trump had electoral coattails, they did not prevent the Republican Party from losing seats in both houses of Congress. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell command smaller majorities than their counterparts eight years earlier, and their caucuses may be equally contentious.  They have also disagreed with candidate Trump on matters of policy. The issues on which they toe the line or draw the line with a new president are still unclear, but will matter.

The issues that Trump decides to push will set the initial terms of the movements that challenge him, just as opposition to health care reform became the litmus test that unified the Tea Party and the Republican Party.

 

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